Bitcoin (BTC) Could Reach $45,000 Next Month, Analyst Predicts

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a remarkable rally this year, surging 80% and outperforming traditional risk assets such as the Nasdaq index. According to Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, the cryptocurrency is likely to continue its upward trajectory and could reach $45,000 by next month. In this article, we’ll take a closer look at Lunde’s predictions and the factors that could influence BTC’s price movements.

The Bear Market of 2018-19: A Fractal Pattern

The current rally in BTC’s price follows a year-long decline that saw prices fall 76% and reach their lowest point in November 2022. The drop and subsequent recovery mirror the pattern seen in the 2018-19 bear market, according to Lunde. In both cycles, bottoms lasted for approximately 370 days, and the peak-to-trough return after 510 days of both cycles reached 60%. In 2018, the bear market rally topped 556 days after the 2017 peak, on June 29, 2019, with a 34% drawdown from the peak.

If the fractal pattern were to continue, Lunde suggests that BTC would peak around May 20 at $45,000. However, he notes that history is unlikely to repeat itself in exactly the same way.

Bitcoin’s Hated Bullish Move

BTC’s year-to-date rise has been described as a “hated bullish move” by crypto observers on Twitter, as several prominent traders positioned themselves for a continued sell-off in the first quarter. A “hated” bull market typically begins during peak pessimism and reaches a fever pitch once investors who reduced risk in anticipation of an extended slide begin to feel underexposed and join the bullish bandwagon.

“The hated rally of 2019 ended with a significant blow-off top before BTC resumed trading at a 40-60% drawdown from its 2017 ATH,” Lunde noted. “The early 2023 rally has all the hallmarks of a hated rally.”

Bitcoin’s Current Price

At the time of writing, BTC was changing hands at $29,850, representing a 1.5% decline for the day, according to CoinDesk data. While the cryptocurrency has experienced significant volatility in the past, it has also shown remarkable resilience and the potential for high returns.

Factors Affecting Bitcoin’s Price

The price of BTC is influenced by a wide range of factors, including macroeconomic events, investor sentiment, and regulatory developments. For example, the recent approval of a Bitcoin ETF in Canada has been viewed as a positive development for the cryptocurrency’s adoption and price potential. Similarly, the rising adoption of blockchain technology in various industries could lead to increased demand for BTC and other cryptocurrencies.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s recent rally has defied expectations and outperformed traditional risk assets. While past performance is not a guarantee of future returns, Lunde’s analysis suggests that BTC’s price could reach $45,000 by next month. However, the cryptocurrency’s price movements are subject to a wide range of factors, and investors should exercise caution and do their research before investing in BTC or any other cryptocurrency.

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