Billionaire Barry Sternlicht Believes He Knows When The Next Recession Will Begin.

2023 is shaping up to be a difficult year for Americans, and Barry Sternlicht has predicted when the next recession will begin.

The United States is on the verge of a recession, which could result in the loss of millions of jobs.

But market bears can at least say, ‘I told you so.’

Barry Sternlicht, chairman of investment firm Starwood Capital Group, appeared on CNBC to provide an estimate of when the full recession will occur.

“A recession will occur in the third or fourth quarter. The consumer has run out of money. His savings rates have reached an all-time low… He relies on credit cards “Sternlicht, whose net worth is estimated to be $4 billion, stated on CNBC on Thursday.

But it’s not all bad for the United States in 2023, as Sternlicht predicts that inflation will fall before the recession hits in the second half of the year.

“One thing about inflation…it isn’t completely fixed,” he explained. “As the supply chain continues to resolve itself, inflation will continue to fall. In May or June, inflation will fall below zero.”

Inflation is expected to fall to 2% by the end of the year, signaling a victory for the Federal Reserve and its policy of steep interest rate increases.

The possibility of a recession is high.

Sternlicht is far from the only economist who predicts a 2023 recession.

The January National Association of Business Economics (NABE) Business Conditions Survey, which polled 60 business economists, yielded some dismal results.

Profit margins remain under pressure, with the survey registering a -25 net rising index (NRI), down from -10 in October. NRI is calculated by subtracting the percentage of panelists who report rising profit margins from the percentage who report falling profit margins.

This is the lowest reading since the middle of 2020. To be sure, profit margins are expected to improve over the next three months, with an NRI of -7, up from -17 in October.

In terms of their economic outlook, slightly more than half of those polled believe the likelihood of a recession over the next year is 50% or higher.

According to the economists, the biggest threats are higher interest rates and costs. However, the potential benefits include lower interest rates and costs, increased labor force participation, and improved supply chains.

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